Nearly 1 in 12 public schools nationwide saw student enrollment declines of about 20% since the year before the COVID-19 pandemic began. And chronically low-performing schools were more than twice as likely to have sizable enrollment drops compared to other public schools, according to a study published by Thomas B. Fordham Institute on Wednesday.
The study, written by Brookings Institution fellow Sofoklis Goulas, found that nearly 500 schools identified as chronically low performing by their states had substantial enrollment declines in the years following the pandemic's onset.
Now, as school districts plan for budgets that are no longer propped up by federal COVID emergency funds, under-enrolled, low-performing schools may be candidates for closure, the report said. But the report also warned that other factors need to be considered, such as whether students in these communities have high-quality alternatives and what the logistical implications would be.
Calling decisions to close schools "painful" and "politically fraught," Fordham executives said in a foreword to the report that "we understand why district officials and local leaders often kick the school-closure can down the road for as long as they can."
"But many of them will eventually be forced to decide the fate of their near-empty buildings," they added.
Cost savings from closing schools typically come largely from reduced labor expenses, according to a March blog post published by news outlet EdSource and written by Edunomics Lab, an education finance research nonprofit. The post estimates that closing 1 of every 15 schools yields a 4% savings in a district’s budget.
But Edunomics Lab also said that money shouldn't be the only factor when considering school closures. "Also relevant is whether the school is effective in its core mission," the authors wrote.
Closures, consolidations may be 'unavoidable'
The Fordham study found that from the 2019-20 school year to the 2022-23 school year about 3 in 20 low-performing schools lost 20% of their student body, compared to just 7% of higher-performing schools. Schools identified as low-performing, meanwhile, were more likely to be located in a high-poverty area, an urban setting and operate as a charter school.
The study uses a provision in federal law to define low-performing schools that includes:
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A state's determination of the lowest-performing 5% of their Title I schools.
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A high school graduation rate below 67%.
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Title I schools with low-performing student subgroups that haven't shown improvements even after being identified for targeted supports.
Louisiana, Maine, Nevada and West Virginia showed the highest portions of chronically low-performing schools, the study found.
Goulas noted that low-performing schools aren't "bad schools" and said states take other factors into consideration when labeling a school as low-performing. The different approaches lead to variations in identifications across states.
Nevada and New Mexico had the highest portions of schools with "substantial" enrollment declines in the years studied.
Nationally, 8% of schools saw enrollment losses of 20% or higher between the 2019-20 and 2022-23 school years. That's an increase from the 5% of schools that had enrollment drops between the 2016-17 and 2019-20 school years.
The report lists the 500 schools that are considered chronically low-performing and that saw substantial enrollment declines.
"Regardless of the root causes, under-enrolled schools create challenges for school districts, chronically low-performing schools create challenges for students, and schools that are both under-enrolled and chronically low-performing are in need of policymakers’ attention," the report said.
To address the challenges of under-enrolled and low-performing schools, the report recommends districts take into account systemic inequities, budget resources strategically, and prioritize the needs of vulnerable student populations.
"However, in some cases, consolidation or closure may be unavoidable," the report said.
Correction: A previous version of this story incorrectly represented the share of student enrollment declines nationwide. The figure has been corrected.
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