School shootings in the first half of 2024 paced slightly slower than this time last year, and the total number of shootings by the end of this year is expected to remain around the same level as 2023, according to the K-12 School Shooting Database.
If the slower pace continues to the end of 2024, it would mark the first time in three years that school shootings don't reach a new record high.
"I think it'll be about the same as last year," said David Riedman, an independent school shooting researcher and founder of the database. "It is a very good sign that the increasing trend from the last few years appears to be leveling off."
Riedman's database is one of the leading projects documenting school shootings, and was originally backed by the Center for Homeland Defense and Security Advanced Thinking program. It tracks any time a gun is fired or brandished with intent, or when a bullet hits school property, regardless of the number of victims, time, day or reason behind the incident.
Last year, the database documented around 184 school shootings by June 30. This year, the number of school shootings reached 173 by the halfway mark. The end of the year is also expected to remain about level with last year's record high of 348 shootings.
"This year also has the same patterns," said Riedman.
Like in past years, shootings in 2024 so far have mostly been the result of fights that escalate.
Mass shootings have also remained low, with one such shooting so far this year at Perry High School in Perry, Iowa. That incident resulted in one death and seven others wounded in January.
Some of the more recent shootings have taken place at graduations, where security protocol may be different from a school's daily operations.
"That's just this soft spot in school security that gets overlooked," said Riedman. "You put a tremendous amount of effort into security during the school day. That same level of effort needs to be extended to things like graduations or sporting events."
As of June 13, there were seven shootings at graduations or end-of-year awards ceremonies, and two additional shootings at unauthorized graduation night parties on campus, per Riedman.
Shootings overall are also expected to pick up this fall. "The fall is always a little bit busier than the spring, because there are so many shootings that happen at the fall high school sports," said Riedman.
Last year, there were about 40 shootings at football games and another 20 at high school basketball games, mostly between November and December, Riedman said. Trends tracked in the database between 2018 and 2023 show that August, September and October are some of the busiest months of the year for school shootings.
‘So much randomness’
While experts have agreed for years that school shootings are on the rise, their definition and exact count have varied depending on the source.
The Gun Violence Archive, which tracks the number of gun violence incidents related to schools, counted over 490 incidents in 2024 as of June 30. The archive defines school shootings as any incident on a K-12 or college campus that resulted in death or injury from gunfire at a time when students and others are present for school or extracurricular activities.
Federal sources usually lag in their counts by a year or more. The Center for Homeland Defense Security's latest data from June 2022 shows 153 shooting incidents on K-12 grounds in the first half of that year. The U.S. Department of Education, which collects data from CHDS and other federal sources, shows 188 shootings with casualties at public and private K-12 schools during the 2021-22 school year.
While such agencies and databases like Riedman's track incidents and their trends over time, it remains difficult to predict the final number of school shootings by the end of 2024.
"There is so much randomness that it's hard to tell how the year ends up," Riedman said.
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